Inflation in Ghana is expected to fall sharply to 16% in June 2025, according to a forecast by IC Research, driven by a stronger cedi and falling energy prices.
The research firm attributes the projected decline to favourable exchange rate dynamics and a reduction in transport costs.
“In June 2025, the Ghanaian cedi appreciated by 29.5% month-on-month and 35.3% year-on-year against the US dollar,” IC Research noted. “This led to significant drops in the prices of imported goods, especially petroleum products and transport fares.”
A 15% cut in commercial transport fares, announced earlier, is expected to continue easing inflation in the transport sector, with broader effects on overall consumer prices.
IC Research further indicated that lower transport costs may have reduced the upward pressure seen in vegetable and tuber prices the previous month, potentially extending food disinflation through June.
The firm forecasts a 240 basis point drop in annual inflation for June, settling at 16.0%, with monthly inflation expected at 0.8%.
In May 2025, headline inflation dropped to 18.4%, marking the fifth straight monthly decline and a cumulative reduction of 540 basis points since the start of the year—compared to just 10 basis points in the same period of 2024.
This rapid disinflation, according to IC Research, reflects a strong base effect, a stronger cedi, and lower fuel prices.
Food Inflation Trends
Food inflation fell by 220 basis points to 22.8% in May, helped by a favourable base effect, particularly in the vegetables and tubers category. While annual inflation for vegetables and tubers dropped by 10.3 percentage points to 24.0%, monthly inflation ticked up to 2.4%, likely due to planting season effects.
Non-Food Inflation Trends
Non-food inflation declined even more sharply, falling by 350 basis points to 14.4% year-on-year in May. This marked seven consecutive months of decline.
Significant reductions were noted in 10 out of 12 non-food categories. Transport inflation, a key component, plunged by 11.8 percentage points to 3.1%, largely due to the cedi’s appreciation and falling energy prices.
“These dynamics have helped to significantly tame inflationary pressures across the board,” IC Research concluded.
