- IMF forecasts 4% growth for Ghana in 2025, below the government’s 4.4% target
- Growth expected to rise to 4.8% in 2026, supported by economic reforms
- Inflation projected to end 2025 at 12%, slightly higher than Ghana’s 11.9% target
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that Ghana’s economy will grow by 4% by the end of 2025, according to its Global Economic Outlook Report released on October 14, 2025, during the World Bank/IMF Spring Meetings in Washington, D.C.
This forecast falls slightly below the Government of Ghana’s 4.4% growth target as outlined in the 2025 national budget. However, the IMF expects Ghana’s growth to accelerate to 4.8% in 2026.
In Q2 2025, Ghana’s economy grew by 6.3%, largely driven by a strong performance in the services sector, which expanded by 9.9% and contributed the most to GDP growth.
Comparing IMF and World Bank Projections
While the IMF did not publicly explain the basis for its 4% projection, sources close to the Fund told Joy Business that the estimate reflects Ghana’s ongoing economic reforms under the IMF-supported programme, aimed at restoring fiscal discipline and supporting recovery.
The IMF’s growth forecast is slightly lower than the World Bank’s projection of 4.3%, as stated in the Africa Pulse Report published earlier in October. Some analysts interpret the IMF’s more cautious outlook as a sign of less optimism about Ghana’s short-term economic momentum.
Inflation: IMF Less Confident in Sustained Single-Digit Levels
The IMF also forecasted that Ghana’s inflation will end 2025 at 12%, just above the government’s target of 11.9%. This contrasts with recent trends, where inflation fell to 9.4% in September, a significant drop from 21.5% a year earlier.
This makes the IMF the second major institution, after the World Bank (which projected 15.4%), to suggest that Ghana might not maintain single-digit inflation by the end of the year.
Nonetheless, local data trends indicate continued disinflation, with some projections hinting at a possible drop to 7% by October 2025. The Bank of Ghana remains confident inflation will stay within the single-digit range by year-end.
Looking ahead, the IMF predicts inflation will decline further to 9.4% in 2026.
Global Context and IMF Advice
Commenting on the broader economic picture, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, IMF Director of Research, noted that while many emerging economies, including Ghana, are recovering, they remain vulnerable to global shocks.
He urged governments to build stronger fiscal buffers to better absorb future external challenges, though he downplayed the likely impact of current global tariff tensions on developing economies.
Globally, the IMF forecasts that economic growth will slow slightly from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025. Advanced economies are expected to grow by 1.5%, while emerging and developing economies, including Ghana, will see average growth of about 4%.
