Despite recent short-term gains, the Ghana cedi is likely to face near-term pressures due to early import demand and the unwinding of year-end foreign exchange (FX) buffers, which may constrain supply.
Over the past two weeks, the cedi has recovered some of its earlier losses, supported by relatively subdued FX demand in both the interbank and retail markets.
In the interbank market, the cedi appreciated by 3.74% against the US dollar, closing at a mid-rate of GHS 10.70/USD. The British pound and euro also strengthened, rising 4.27% and 4.81% to GHS 14.38/GBP and GHS 12.47/EUR, respectively.
In the retail market, the cedi recorded gains of 1.65% against the dollar, 2.49% versus the pound, and 2.85% relative to the euro, closing at GHS 12.15/USD, GHS 16.05/GBP, and GHS 14.05/EUR.
Databank Research notes that while FX pressures may emerge, their impact is likely to be moderate, as market participants expect the gradual disbursement of the USD 1 billion allocated for January 2026 under the FX Intermediation Programme.
External factors could also influence the currency. For instance, recent tensions between the US Federal Reserve and former President Trump over the Jerome Powell investigation may soften the US dollar slightly in the near term.
Nonetheless, domestic demand dynamics are expected to remain the primary driver of the cedi’s performance in the coming weeks.
