- Crude oil prices expected to average $64 per barrel in 2025, down from $80.70 in 2024
- Further decline to $60 per barrel projected for 2026 if current trends continue
- Despite price drops, global oil demand grew by 1.2 million barrels per day in Q1 2025
Crude oil prices are projected to average $64 per barrel in 2025, according to the World Bank’s April 2025 Commodity Markets Outlook, reflecting a significant drop from the 2024 average of $80.70. Looking ahead, the forecast anticipates a further decline to $60 per barrel in 2026 if current trends continue.
This decline, coupled with a stable exchange rate, is expected to keep fuel prices relatively steady at the pump—barring major external shocks.
The World Bank attributes the recent slide in oil prices to growing concerns over global economic performance. Prices fell below $63 per barrel in early April 2025, the lowest level since April 2021, following the U.S. imposition of sweeping trade tariffs on April 2. The tariffs triggered a rapid $12-per-barrel drop over just four trading days—the 11th-largest such drop since 1990.
Although Brent crude dropped to $70 per barrel in early March, Q1 2025 saw a modest $1 per barrel price gain, partially offsetting the $5 decline recorded in the last quarter of 2024.
Demand Remains Resilient
Global oil demand rose by 1.2 million barrels per day (1.2%) in Q1 2025, a slight increase from 1.1% growth in the previous quarter. In China, demand increased by 0.2 million barrels per day (1.4%), although this was down from 1.0% growth in Q4 2024. Advanced economies posted a small rebound in consumption, rising by 0.4 million barrels per day (0.9%).
In 2024, oil demand growth slowed in China, Europe and Central Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean. Conversely, consumption increased in East Asia and the Pacific (excluding China), the Middle East and North Africa, and South Asia. Sub-Saharan Africa saw a decline in demand, while developed economies remained flat.
A major factor in China’s reduced oil consumption was the widespread adoption of electric vehicles. Over 40% of new car sales in China in 2024 were EVs, leading to a reduction of approximately 0.45 million barrels per day in oil usage.
