- Ghana’s cedi slightly recovered from GH¢10.35 to GH¢10.30 per dollar
- Gold prices pulled back from $3,432 to $3,395 as investors moved away from safe havens
- Ghana’s fuel levy suspension helped protect consumers amid price volatility
Crude oil prices have eased following a sharp spike on Friday triggered by Israel’s airstrikes on Iran over its nuclear enrichment program.
Fears of a wider regional conflict initially pushed Brent crude up by 7%, reaching $74 per barrel. However, market sentiment has since cooled, with prices settling slightly lower at around $73, indicating traders are currently betting against immediate escalation.
Ghana’s cedi, which weakened from GH¢10.25 to GH¢10.35 per dollar after the strikes, regained some ground, closing Monday at GH¢10.30. This modest recovery suggests easing concerns in the currency market.
Similarly, gold prices, which surged to $3,432 on Friday as investors sought safe-haven assets, softened to $3,395 by Monday—reflecting a pullback from risk-off positions.
Key Iranian energy export infrastructure and the Strait of Hormuz—a vital shipping lane handling up to 25% of global oil exports—remain largely unaffected. Crude shipments continued flowing without disruption on Monday.
Concerns that other regional producers like Saudi Arabia might be drawn into the conflict or targeted have not materialized. Despite Iran’s retaliatory drone strikes, the more severe scenarios that unsettled markets seem temporarily off the table.
Nonetheless, ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East has led oil tanker operators to impose higher risk premiums for navigating the area, meaning oil prices are likely to stay somewhat elevated even without major supply interruptions until tensions clearly ease.
On the supply side, OPEC+ production remains strong, with some members exceeding their quotas, while global oil demand for the latter half of 2025 remains subdued. This combination of ample supply and soft demand continues to limit further price increases.
This outlook aligns with JoyNews Research’s recent analysis, which forecast downward pressure on prices barring any major escalation.
For Ghana, the recent price volatility raised serious concerns. Higher crude prices would have driven up transport costs, food prices, and imported inflation, exerting fresh pressure on the cedi.
The joint decision by Ghana’s Energy and Finance Ministries to suspend a proposed additional GH₵1 per litre fuel levy was timely, helping shield consumers from further price shocks.
However, this episode highlights Ghana’s vulnerability to global oil market fluctuations. Despite recurring crises in recent years, the country has not built meaningful strategic reserves. According to a former BOST managing director, the fuel levy that once funded reserves was discontinued in 2006.
Efforts to rebuild stocks have been minimal since then. Key infrastructure like the Tema Oil Refinery remains underutilized, and Ghana’s crude oil production has declined for five consecutive years.
This near crisis should be a wake-up call: Ghana must prioritize energy security structurally. Building petroleum stockpiles during periods of low prices, boosting local oil production, and revitalizing refinery capacity are urgent tasks.
Until these measures are taken, Ghana remains highly susceptible to future fuel price shocks triggered by geopolitical events.
While crude prices have returned to pre-conflict levels for now, as long as the Israel-Iran tensions persist, Ghana is not out of danger.
Oil markets may be calm at the moment, but without strategic buffers, Ghana remains just one geopolitical event away from renewed volatility.
