The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of Ghana is likely to lower the policy rate by 300 basis points to 25%, following a significant decline in inflation.
June 2025 inflation dropped sharply to 13.7%, strengthening expectations for a more accommodative policy stance. According to IC Research, “We maintain a dovish outlook for the July MPC meeting, increasing our expected rate cut to at least 300 basis points, up from our earlier projection of 200 basis points.”
The real policy rate widened to 14.3% in June from 9.6% in May, with core inflation now firmly in single digits—giving the central bank greater flexibility to ease monetary policy further.
However, IC Research also urged caution, noting the need to safeguard currency stability and mitigate risks of second-round inflation from a potential increase in fuel levies in Q3 2025.
In May 2025, the MPC kept the policy rate at 28%, citing progress in curbing inflation and maintaining exchange rate stability.
Central Bank Governor Dr. Johnson Asiama stated the decision was based on forecasts showing continued easing of inflation, supported by tight monetary policy, a relatively stable exchange rate, and ongoing fiscal consolidation.
Since the last MPC meeting, both lending rates and yields have been on a downward trend, adding to the likelihood of a rate cut.
