Ghana’s trade surplus appears strong, reaching GH¢11.5 billion in the first quarter of 2024.
However, a closer look reveals a concerning trend: rising prices, not increased exports, are driving this growth.
Cocoa Exports Plummet
The culprit? A dramatic decline in cocoa exports. This vital crop, usually contributing over 20% of exports, has shrunk to just 12.1%. Several factors are at play:
- Low harvest: Extreme weather and disease halved the 2023/24 cocoa harvest, resulting in just 422,500 metric tonnes – a 22-year low.
- Reduced mid-crop: Projections for the smaller mid-crop season have been slashed from 150,000 MT to a meager 25,000 MT.
Real Growth Lags Behind
While the nominal trade surplus is impressive, adjusting for price increases paints a different picture. Real trade value, which excludes price effects, grew a meager 0.6% since 2021. This pales in comparison to the 2.4-fold increase in nominal value.
Officials Seek Solutions
Ghanaian trade officials acknowledge the problem. They aim to diversify exports and boost real output, not just rely on price fluctuations.
Gold Fills the Gap
While cocoa falters, gold exports are booming. Their contribution to the total export value has jumped from 40% to 50%. Authorities plan to address the vulnerabilities in the cocoa sector to ensure this crucial income source doesn’t deteriorate further.
