- World Bank forecasts a 7% drop in global food prices in 2025
- Rice prices expected to fall 29% due to strong supply and eased export curbs
- Grain prices to decline the most, led by wheat and maize
Global food prices are projected to decline for a second year in a row in 2025, largely due to a sharp drop in rice prices. Ample global supplies and looser export restrictions are exerting downward pressure on the market.
According to the World Bank’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook, its food price index is expected to fall by 7% year-on-year. All three major sub-categories—grains, oils and meals, and other food products—are forecast to record price decreases.
Grain prices are set to experience the most significant decline, falling by 11%, with rice prices predicted to plunge by 29%.
This outlook reflects robust global production and the relaxation of India’s export controls.
India, which supplies around 40% of the world’s rice exports, is expected to boost its output by 5% in the 2024–25 season, while global rice production is anticipated to grow by 2%.
Despite this short-term softness, rice prices are likely to stabilize in 2026, supported by balanced growth in both supply and demand, according to preliminary estimates from the International Grains Council.
Wheat prices are also expected to decline through 2026 due to trade-related demand concerns, though the drop may be tempered by tight supply conditions.
While global wheat production remains near record highs, it is expected to fall slightly short of consumption, reducing inventory levels.
Maize prices are projected to dip by 2% in both 2025 and 2026. Weaker crude oil prices—curbing ethanol demand—and intensifying U.S.-China trade tensions are likely to dampen overall demand.
Furthermore, maize’s price competitiveness compared to wheat and soybeans is expected to prompt increased planting, adding more downward pressure.
However, historically low maize stock levels—set to hit their lowest point in over a decade—could limit the extent of the price decline.
