President Donald Trump faces a critical and volatile week in his escalating trade war with China, as pressure mounts to de-escalate tensions that risk causing significant harm to the U.S. economy.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has so far resisted pressure to engage directly with Trump, even after the U.S. imposed steep 145% tariffs on Chinese goods—triggering the kind of direct economic confrontation experts had long feared. Trump continues to reassure Americans that his “great relationship” with Xi will prevent a full-blown crisis. However, no formal talks have been scheduled, and the stalemate is raising fears of another stock market downturn and increased financial hardship for Americans.
Despite the high stakes, Trump appeared unfazed over the weekend, receiving a warm reception at a UFC event in Florida. He called the crowd’s reaction “somewhat legendary” and interpreted it as a sign his administration is “doing a good job.” But while Trump may enjoy public displays of support, the trade war with China is a far more complex and high-risk matter.
The United States and China are deeply interconnected economically. The U.S. relies on China for critical imports such as consumer electronics, rare earth minerals essential for electric vehicles and defense technologies, pharmaceuticals, and everyday essentials like clothing and footwear. Meanwhile, U.S. exports of soybeans and sorghum are crucial for American farmers, but escalating tariffs are choking off this vital trade.
On April 10, China responded with 34% tariffs on all U.S. imports and imposed export restrictions on seven types of rare earth minerals, including samarium, gadolinium, and terbium. Experts warn that both nations stand to suffer immensely if the trade conflict continues unchecked. While American consumers could face product shortages and price hikes, some analysts believe China’s authoritarian government may be more willing to accept domestic pain to win what it sees as a defining geopolitical struggle.
Trump’s willingness to maintain a hardline stance was questioned after he unexpectedly suspended tariffs for 90 days on several countries following alarming bond market sell-offs. That move, likely viewed as a sign of weakness by Beijing, was followed by Trump’s decision to double down on China with the 145% tariff hike—possibly an effort to save face.
Further confusion arose when the White House announced that Chinese-made smartphones and computers would be exempt from the top tariff rate—an acknowledgment that such tariffs could severely impact the tech industry and consumers. But by Sunday, the administration reversed course, clarifying that the products would still face lower-level tariffs, raising questions about the consistency and strategy behind its decisions.
In a Truth Social post, Trump insisted no exceptions were granted, attacking the media and reiterating his stance against unfair trade practices. “Nobody is getting ‘off the hook’… especially not China,” he wrote. He added that products would now fall under a different tariff category and still be subject to existing 20% fentanyl-related tariffs.
The Trump administration’s approach has also failed to fully consider the political dynamics driving China’s resistance. Xi’s ambition to solidify China’s global power status is rooted in a narrative that Western nations have long sought to suppress Chinese influence. Caving to U.S. pressure would be seen domestically as weakness, making a deal harder to achieve.
Still, U.S. officials continue to dismiss China’s retaliatory capacity. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent downplayed the threat, claiming China holds a weak position in the trade war due to its larger export dependence on the U.S.
This confidence in brinkmanship—an approach Trump honed in his real estate career—is now being put to the test. Should Trump succeed in redefining U.S.-China trade relations, he could claim a landmark achievement. For years, American presidents believed economic liberalization in China would promote political reform and integration into global rules-based systems. But Xi’s nationalist policies and growing assertiveness have turned China into what many now view as the U.S.’s primary strategic rival.
While Trump has argued that trade with China has fueled the rise of a competing superpower, it’s also provided American consumers with affordable goods—from clothing to smartphones. However, globalization has hollowed out domestic manufacturing, leaving lasting impacts on U.S. workers and communities.
Despite deepening tensions and potential economic fallout, Trump’s aides defended his strategy over the weekend. Trade adviser Peter Navarro claimed on NBC’s Meet the Press that the situation was unfolding as planned and that the U.S. could secure “90 deals in 90 days.”
Analysts remain skeptical, noting that such rapid agreements are rare and warning that any concessions offered by nations like Japan, India, South Korea, or the EU might be superficial. Without real structural changes, Trump’s trade war may fail to deliver on promises to revive American manufacturing—while imposing huge costs on the global economy and the retirement savings of millions of Americans.
