- The prediction follows a 100 basis point hike to 28% by the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)
- The MPC signals a potential gradual easing of policy as inflation stabilizes
- The report reflects confidence in the fiscal disinflation measures outlined in the 2025 budget
IC Research, the research division of IC Securities, anticipates that the Bank of Ghana will reduce its policy rate for the first time since November 2024 in July 2025. This follows a recent decision by the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to raise the policy rate by 100 basis points to 28%.
In its analysis titled “A Hawkish Kick-Off to the New Regime,” IC Research noted that the MPC has left the door open for a gradual easing of the policy stance as inflation becomes more firmly controlled.
“We do not rule out a rate cut in Q3 2025. The MPC’s stance suggests a willingness to ease gradually as inflation stabilizes,” the report said.
IC Research believes this tone reflects the authorities’ confidence in achieving faster disinflation in the coming months, as the tight monetary policy complements ongoing fiscal efforts. This aligns with the expectation of faster disinflation, which could push the real policy rate from its current 4.9% to over 8.0% by June 2025. Based on this, the research firm maintains its forecast for the first rate cut to occur during the July 2025 MPC meeting.
In December 2024, IC Research had projected a 200 basis point increase in the policy rate at the January 2025 MPC meeting.
The firm’s hawkish outlook was supported by inflation surpassing the International Monetary Fund’s target in December 2024, which would typically trigger the Monetary Policy Consultation Clause (MPCC) and prompt a policy adjustment. However, the response was delayed to assess the fiscal disinflation measures outlined in the 2025 budget.
