- Question method's subjectivity.
- Defends with "judgmental" approach.
- White House performance, not campaigns.
- 2000 election's unique circumstances.
American University history professor Allan Lichtman, known for accurately predicting all but one U.S. presidential election since 1984, forecasts that Kamala Harris will win the White House in November 2024.
Forget the polls and swing-state interviews—historian Allan Lichtman is confident about the 2024 U.S. presidential election outcome.
“Harris will win,” Lichtman told AFP from his home in Bethesda, Maryland.
Lichtman, known for his “13 keys” method, has accurately predicted all but one presidential election since 1984. He dismisses opinion polls in favor of his methodology, which assesses the current administration against a series of true-or-false statements. If six or more “keys” are false, the election will go to the challenger—in this case, Republican Donald Trump.
One of Lichtman’s keys involves the president’s party gaining seats in the most recent midterm elections. Since Democrats lost control of the House in 2022, this key is deemed “false,” favoring Trump.
Additional keys also tilt towards Trump: President Joe Biden’s departure removes the incumbency advantage. While Kamala Harris, Biden’s successor, has strong party support, Lichtman does not consider her a “once-in-a-generation” candidate like Ronald Reagan or Franklin Roosevelt.
Despite these points favoring Trump, several keys align with Harris. The Biden administration’s significant environment and infrastructure legislation meets the criterion for a “major policy change.” The exit of independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and the absence of major scandals also benefit Harris.
Trump only meets three keys, while he would need six to be declared the presumptive winner. However, a potential ceasefire and hostage release in Gaza could shift another key in Harris’s favor, showcasing a major foreign policy success. Lichtman notes that while this is speculative, such an achievement could significantly impact the election outcome.
Critics argue that Lichtman’s “13 keys” method is speculative, questioning what defines a charismatic leader. Despite this, Lichtman, who has been using the method for 40 years, defends his approach robustly.
He explains, “I’ve heard every conceivable question,” adding that his keys are not subjective but “judgmental.” According to Lichtman, presidential elections boil down to a simple evaluation of the White House party’s performance, rather than the complexities of campaign rhetoric.
Lichtman’s method contrasts with the “horse race” style of modern politics, focusing on governance rather than the fluctuating narratives of campaigns. The only election where Lichtman’s predictions did not hold was the 2000 contest, where George W. Bush won despite Al Gore’s popular vote lead, due to a Supreme Court decision.
