Fitch Ratings, a UK-based credit rating agency, has assessed Ghana’s fiscal outlook ahead of the December 2024 elections.
Despite a history of fiscal slippage in election years, Fitch believes the risk of policy slippage is low due to the government’s strong commitment to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) program.
Fitch estimates Ghana’s primary surplus will reach 0.3% of GDP in 2024, driven by increased revenue and reduced primary expenditure. The agency projects a primary surplus of 0.9% of GDP in 2026.
Ghana’s current account balance improved to a surplus of 1.8% of GDP in 2023, but Fitch expects a deficit of 0.7% of GDP in 2024 due to challenges in the cacao sector and resumed external debt service.
However, moderate current account deficits and large disbursements from international financing institutions will help increase gross international reserves to 2.8 months of current external payments by 2026.
Overall, Fitch’s assessment suggests Ghana’s fiscal outlook is stable, but uncertainty remains over the commitment of a new administration to the IMF program after the elections.
