Ghana, the world’s second-largest cocoa producer, is planning to delay the delivery of up to 350,000 tons of cocoa beans to next season due to poor crops, according to five sources. This move will further worsen the outlook for the global chocolate industry, which is already facing a supply crisis.
Chocolate makers worldwide are raising prices for consumers after cocoa prices more than doubled in value this year alone, following three years of poor harvests in Ghana and Ivory Coast. The market had previously estimated that Ghana would roll forward some 250,000 metric tons of cocoa, equivalent to about half its current crop.
However, COCOBOD, Ghana’s cocoa regulator, stated that the country is looking to roll over “some volumes, but not in those (350,000 ton) quantities”. Ghana’s cocoa crop has been severely impacted by adverse weather, bean disease, and illegal gold mining, which often displaces cocoa farms.
Additionally, Ghanian farmers are smuggling more beans to neighboring countries to sell them at higher prices than the state purchasing price, further eroding the available crop for delivery in Ghana. Sources revealed that Ghana pre-sold some 785,000 tons worth of beans for the current 2023/24 season but will likely only be able to deliver some 435,000 tons.
The International Cocoa Organisation expects global cocoa production to fall 10.9% to 4.45 million tons this season, forcing processors and chocolate firms to draw on cocoa stocks to fully cover their needs.
The price rally is disrupting the established mechanism for cocoa trade, and Ghana’s struggles with forward sales for next season may tempt farmers to ramp up bean smuggling, grow other crops, or sell more of their farms to gold miners.
