- Previous negotiations have failed
- Hamas is unlikely to release all hostages without guarantees
- The negotiations are complex
The leaders of Hamas and Israel are engaged in a high-stakes game of survival as they negotiate an end to the war in Gaza.
The terms of the ceasefire will significantly impact their political futures and grip on power. Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar’s physical survival is also at risk.
Previous negotiations have failed due to disagreements over the release of hostages and a permanent ceasefire. US President Joe Biden’s plan outlines a phased approach, starting with a limited hostage-for-prisoner deal, followed by discussions on a permanent ceasefire. However, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces domestic pressure to ensure the deal does not compromise Israel’s security.
Hamas is unlikely to release all hostages without guarantees that Israel won’t resume fighting. Netanyahu needs to keep his options open to appease his far-right coalition partners and avoid early elections and a corruption trial. Bridging the gap between the two sides will require creative solutions and concessions.
The outcome will determine the political fate of both leaders and the future of the region. The negotiations are complex, with deep divisions within Hamas and Israel.
The success or failure of the deal will depend on finding a balance between security, political survival, and the humanitarian needs of the people affected by the war.
